Novel Coronavirus in India and Outbreaks Around World: A Statistical Analysis of Odisha, India and the World

Background: The Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO) declared novel Coronavirus (nCoV-2019) outbreaks in 2019 as pandemic. Method(s): This research work made an analysis of the nCoV-2019 outbreak in India solely based on a mathematical model. Result(s): The historical epidemics in the world are plague, AIDS, Swine flu, ebola, zika virus, Black Death and SARS. Considering the model used for SARS 2003, the present research on COVID-2019 estimates characteristics of the rate of infections (I) and rate of recovery(R), which leads to the estima-tion of the I and R leading to predict the number of infections and recovery. Through ruling out the un-predictable and unreasonable data, the model predicts that the number of the cumulative 2019-nCoV cases may reach from 3398458 (mid of May) to 15165863, with a peak of the unrecovered infection (2461434-15165863) occurring in late April to late July. In this paper, we predicate how the confirmed infected cases would rapidly decrease until late March to July in India. We also focus on how the Gov-ernment of Odisha (a state of India) creates history in the protective measures of COVID-19. Conclusion(s): The growing infected cases may get reduced by 70-79% by strong anti-epidemic measures. The enforcement of shutdown, lockdown, awareness, and improvement of medical and health care could also lead to about one-half transmission decrease and constructively abridge the duration of the 2019 n-CoV.Copyright © 2021 Bentham Science Publishers.

The potential role of telemedicine in the infectious disease pandemic with an emphasis on COVID-19: A narrative review.

Background and Aims: Due of its low cost, rapid speed, data record, and vast communication coverage, information and communication technology might be useful for health-related fields in times of crisis. By providing medical or hygienic services to a patient who lives elsewhere using communication methods like email, fax, cellphones, applications, and wireless gadgets, telemedicine can aid in the better management of diseases. Reviewing the potential role of telemedicine in the pandemic of infectious diseases with a focus on the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic was the main goal of this study. Methods: "Google Scholar," "PubMed," "Science Direct," and "Scopus" databases were searched to collect the papers that identify the advantages and disadvantages of telemedicine in the disease pandemic. Searched keywords include: telepharmacy, telemedicine, remote communication, pandemic(s), epidemic, distant care, distant communication, phone consulation, video conference communication and patient education. Results: Information and communication technology are crucial, especially when dealing with pandemics of infectious diseases like COVID-19. Less "in-person" patient visits to hospitals as a result of telemedicine eventually means less labor for the medical staff, less viral exposure for patients, and ultimately less disease spread. By establishing a bidirectional reciprocal relationship between patients and healthcare providers although they are in separate geographical areas, it can improve patient health status. Conclusion: Governments are currently facing a significant budgetary burden because to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since patients are not sent to medical facilities in person, which could be a source of infection, telemedicine reduces disease spread while saving money.

Gender Difference in Fear and Anxiety about and Perceived Susceptibility to COVID-19 in the Third Wave of Pandemic among the Japanese General Population: A Nationwide Web-Based Cross-Sectional Survey.

Existing research suggested gender differences in fear and anxiety about and perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 and previous infectious disease pandemics. We analyzed whether women felt fear and anxiety about and perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 more frequently than men in Japan. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using internet survey data collected during the third wave of the pandemic in Japan. The subjects were enrolled from the Japanese general population: 11,957 men and 11,559 women. Fear and anxiety specifically related to COVID-19 were evaluated with the Japanese version of the Fear of COVID-19 Scale (FoCS). The question "How likely do you think you will be infected with COVID-19?" was used to assess the perceived susceptibility to COVID-19. Women had higher mean (standard deviation) FoCS scores [18.6 (5.6) vs. 17.5 (5.9), d = 0.190] and reported the median or higher FoCS score (57.4% vs. 51.4%, φ = 0.060) and perceived susceptibility (13.6% vs. 11.5%, φ = 0.032) more frequently than men. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) adjusted for age, having a spouse, comorbidities, watching commercial TV stations' news programs, employment status, and household income were 1.24 (1.17-1.32) and 1.27 (1.16-1.38), respectively. We observed that women were more anxious and fearful about and perceived the susceptibility to infectious diseases more frequently than men even one year after the pandemic occurred in Japan, although the effect size was small.

The impacts of infectious disease pandemic on China’s edible vegetable oil futures markets: A long-term perspective

For the extremely important role of China in global edible vegetable oil market and its decisive measures in the epidemic controlling and stable economic recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic, the aim of this article is to inspect the quantitative impacts of infectious disease pandemic on the returns, volatilities and correlations of China's edible vegetable oil futures markets by using a DCC-MVGARCH-X model incorporating Baidu searching index as the proxy of pandemic severity. Our empirical results show that infectious disease pandemic does have significantly positive impacts on the returns and volatilities of China's soybean, canola and palm oil futures markets. Second, there are significant volatility spillover effects among the three vegetable oils, suggesting strong contagion effect from one oil market to the others. Third, soybean oil and palm oil show the largest correlation, while the dependence between canola oil and palm oil is the smallest one among the three pairwise correlations. Moreover, no matter to consider epidemic situation in China or in global environment, infectious disease pandemic has significant effects on these correlations.

Infectious disease equity market volatility, geopolitical risk, speculation, and commodity returns: Comparative analysis of five epidemic outbreaks.

This paper uses a time-varying Granger causality test and time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility model to analyze the effects of infectious disease equity market volatility (ID-EMV), geopolitical risk (GPR), and speculation on commodity returns. The time-varying effects of ID-EMV, GPR, and speculation on commodity returns are investigated and compared in five epidemics during 1998-2021: Bird Flu in 1998, SARS in 2003, Swine Flu in 2009, MERS and Ebola in 2014, and COVID-19 in 2019. A further analysis is performed for five commodity subcategories of textiles, industry, metals, livestock, and food. Results show that time-varying effects are significant, and most responses to ID-EMV are positive, to GPR are changing from negative to positive, and to speculation are negative. Notably, ID-EMV in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the worst hit to commodity returns in more than two decades.

Geographies of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain: The return of the rural environment

The COVID-19 pandemic was the worst public, economic and social health crisis in Spain since the Civil War. This virus caused thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of infections, with Catalonia and Madrid as the most affected territories. A first exploratory analysis shows, with the scarce reliable data available so far, that this pandemic has had a special impact on urban areas with higher population density and pollution levels, while rural areas, despite having a much higher at-risk population and a much more precarious healthcare system, have proven to be much more resilient to coronavirus expansion. All this opens the door to revaluing the importance of the rural environment as an analytical category and as a space for opportunities and life in the face of present and future pandemics and not just problems and crises. © 2022, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona. All rights reserved.

Can infectious disease pandemic impact the long-term volatility and correlation of gold and crude oil markets?

Infectious disease pandemic has been proved to have deep effects on financial and commodity markets. Gold and crude oil as two commonly used commodities to diversify a wide variety of uncertainties are both very susceptible to public health emergencies. The aim of this paper is to quantify the impacts of infectious disease pandemic on the long-term volatility and correlation of gold and crude oil markets by using the DCC-MIDAS approach. The empirical results show that infectious disease pandemic does has prominent positive impacts on the long-run volatilities of both gold and crude oil markets, and these impacts are strengthened with the time lags of infectious disease pandemic. Furthermore, crude oil market is more vulnerable to public health emergencies than gold market. Finally, infectious disease pandemic also has significantly positive effects on the long-term correlation between gold and crude oil markets. These findings have profound implications for gold and crude oil traders in terms of risk management and portfolio allocation.

Psychological experience of patients with confirmed COVID-19 at the initial stage of pandemic in Wuhan, China: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly developed into a global pandemic and affected patients' mental health. However, little is known about psychological experience of patients with COVID-19. The aim was to elucidate the psychological experience of patients with confirmed COVID-19 in Wuhan, at the initial stage of the pandemic. METHODS: This study was conducted using a phenomenological approach in a qualitative study. Thirteen patients with confirmed COVID-19 from a COVID-19-designated hospital in Wuhan, were recruited between March 15th and April 20th, 2020 via purposive sampling. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted face-to-face. The interview data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: The psychological experience of patients was summarized into three themes: mental distress related to COVID-19, expectations of life scenarios after discharge, and making sense of the experience. These themes were classified into 10 sub-themes. Patients experienced confusion, uncertainty, worry, guilt and concern. Both positive and negative expectations of life scenarios after discharge were reported, manifested as expectations about making up for lost time with family, anxiety about social discrimination and feelings of helplessness about poor financial security. Moreover, patients perceived strength of abundant social support and awareness of social responsibility from their unique experience to cope with their condition. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that patients with confirmed COVID-19 in Wuhan underwent complex psychological experience, both positive and negative at the initial stage of the pandemic. These findings will contribute to the delivery of effective mental health care to safeguard patients' wellbeing.

Re-evaluation of the healthcare service quality criteria for the Covid-19 pandemic: Z-number fuzzy cognitive map.

Hospitals as healthcare centers have faced many challenges with the Covid-19 spread, which results in a decline in the quality of health care. Because the number of patients referred to hospitals increases dramatically during the pandemic, providing high-quality services and satisfying them is more important than ever to maintain community health and create loyal customers in the future. However, health care quality standards are generally designed for normal circumstances. The SERVPERF standard, which measures customer perceptions of service quality, has also been adjusted for hospital service quality measurement. In this study, the SERVPERF standard criteria for health services are evaluated in the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose, by considering the causal relationships between the criteria and using Z-Number theory and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs), the importance of these criteria in the prevalence of infectious diseases was analyzed. According to the results, hospital reliability, hospital hygiene, and completeness of the hospital with ratios 0.9559, 0.9305, and 0.9268 are respectively the most influential criteria in improving the quality of health services in the spread of infectious diseases circumstances such as the Covid-19 pandemic. A review of the literature shows that in previous studies, comprehensive research has not been done on prioritizing the criteria for measuring the quality of health services in the context of the spread of infectious diseases.

Quarantine acceptance and adherence: qualitative evidence synthesis and conceptual framework.

Aim: Emergent infectious diseases often lack medical treatment or preventive vaccines, thus requiring non-pharmaceutical interventions such as quarantine to reduce disease transmission. Quarantine, defined as the separation and restriction of movement of healthy people who have potentially been exposed to the disease, remains contentious especially when the risks and benefits are not fully discussed and not effectively communicated to the people by the organizations who impose this public health measure. Subject and methods: A qualitative evidence synthesis was conducted to examine the phenomenon of adherence to quarantine focused on the following questions: What strategies affect adherence to quarantine? What are the barriers and facilitators to quarantine acceptance? What benefits and harms of quarantine have been described or measured? Results: The evidence synthesis produced 18 findings assessed with high confidence. The findings were used to construct a conceptual framework for inter- and within-organization coordination and public communication that includes the following topics for consideration: desired orientation for implementation; population demographics; perceptions of messages; prior acceptance of quarantine; likelihood of impacts of quarantine; perceptions of health infrastructure; and perceptions of policy importance. Conclusion: The findings and conceptual framework can guide development of effective non-pharmaceutical interventions and as such have direct relevance to public health policy and decision-making for intervening in emergent infectious diseases outbreak such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The Ethics of Repurposing Previously Collected Research Biospecimens in an Infectious Disease Pandemic.

In the early days of a pandemic, repurposing biospecimens from established research projects could prove to be extraordinarily useful in achieving substantial and timely public health benefits. Nonetheless, there are potential ethical and regulatory uncertainties that may impede access to those valuable biospecimens. In this article, we argue that there should be a presumption in favor of using previously collected identifiable research biospecimens without reconsent to directly address an infectious disease pandemic, assuming certain conditions are met. This argument fills a unique yet critical gap in decision-making where the specific consent accompanying the identifiable biospecimens would not otherwise permit repurposing. Further, it suggests that even if gaining reconsent is feasible, doing so in a fast-moving crisis is not necessary. This analysis also attempts to address the ethical concerns of public health authorities who already may have the power to use such specimens but are reluctant to do so.

Guaranteeing the Health Rights of People with Disabilities in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perspectives from China.

The question of how to guarantee the health rights of people with disabilities, and their health equity in particular, is frequently neglected in infectious disease pandemics. The international response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is no exception in this regard. This neglect is related to other forms of marginalization and exclusion, as people with disabilities are generally poorer and more vulnerable than their non-disabled counterparts. Sustainable Development Goal 3 lacks an appropriate human rights language that enshrines equality and inclusivity in pandemic prevention work and related policies and legislation; and, as a result, it does not sufficiently guarantee the health rights of people with disabilities. This paper draws on China's pandemic prevention work to extract relevant lessons, and seeks to explain how decision-making systems and resource allocation mechanisms impact on the health rights of people with disabilities. It discusses the unique roles of justice and legislation in helping to guarantee the health rights of people with disabilities in an infectious disease pandemic, and concludes that future research should more closely consider how Sustainable Development Goal 16 can support Sustainable Development Goal 3.

Infectious disease pandemic and permanent volatility of international stock markets: A long-term perspective.

Understanding the impact of infectious disease pandemic on stock market volatility is of great concerns for investors and policy makers, especially during recent new coronavirus spreading period. Using an extended GARCH-MIDAS model and a newly developed Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker (EMV-ID), we investigate the effects of infectious disease pandemic on volatility of US, China, UK and Japan stock markets through January 2005 to April 2020. The empirical results show that, up to 24-month lag, infectious disease pandemic has significant positive impacts on the permanent volatility of international stock markets, even after controlling the influences of past realized volatility, global economic policy uncertainty and the volatility leverage effect. At different lags of eruptions in infectious disease pandemic, EMV-ID has distinct effects on various stock markets while it has the smallest impact on permanent volatility of China's stock market.